An Empirically- and Theoretically-based Model of the Market for Pollination Services

Motivated by increasing threats to pollinator health and the resultant impacts on pollination fees, this thesis models the market for pollination and honey production using the most complete economic model of the joint honey-pollination market developed to date. It incorporates realistic biological population dynamics, multiple crops that bloom both simultaneously and sequentially, and the transportation of bees across several states during the year. The model is used to investigate the market reaction to and economic impact of changes in winter and summer survival rates and number of hives demanded on almonds. The model is first tested using a scaled-down representation of the system, then calibrated using the best available data and personal communications with professional beekeepers. The model predicts that an increase in the quantity of honey bee hives required on almonds causes a rise in pollination prices for early-blooming crops and a decline in prices for pollination of late-blooming crops and for honey. This corroborates hypotheses that increased demand for bees on almonds is pushing the extensive margin outward, driving pollination prices for that crop upward. When simulating changes in survival rates, the model generally predicts a rise in almond and late-season pollination fees and a fall in pollination fees for early-blooming crops other than almonds. Winter or summer colony survival rates less than 93% of the base scenario resulted in an inability of the model to reach equilibrium on a 30-year simulation, suggesting that low survival rates may cause a structural change in the market that goes beyond the scope of this model. Finally, the model predicts that if, relative to the year 2012, 35% more bees per acre were needed on almonds to achieve the same level of pollination, this would result in a societal cost of around $100 million, borne almost entirely by crop growers. Additionally, a simulation of either winter or summer survival rates dropping to approximately 93$50 and $75 million

Algorithmic improvements and analyses of the generalized wave continuity equation based model, ADCIRC.

Second, nearly all GWC-based models utilize a velocity-based, non-conservative momentum equation (NCM) to obtain the depth-averaged velocity profile. It has been hypothesized that the conservative momentum equation (CM) may improve accuracy, mass balance and stability. Results show that the CM equation improves mass balance, both globally and locally, especially in areas of steep bathymetry gradients, and improves local spatial accuracy in these same regions, yet does so without significantly impacting stability, temporal accuracy and global spatial accuracy.First, the current time marching algorithm is semi-implicit, with the nonlinear terms evaluated explicitly. It has been hypothesized that the explicit treatment of the nonlinear terms can lead to instabilities. An iterative, implicit treatment of the nonlinear terms is implemented and studied. Results show an increase in the maximum time step of at least eight-fold, depending on the domain, and an increase in temporal accuracy from first to second order. A parallel implementation of the algorithm scales as well as the original algorithm.Shallow water equations are based on conservation of mass and momentum and can be used to model the hydrodynamic behavior of oceans, coastal areas, estuaries and lakes. The model used in this research ADCIRC, an advanced three-dimensional circulation model, is based on the shallow water equations. ADCIRC provides elevation changes and velocity profiles that can be utilized by themselves or coupled with other models, such as water quality models, thus lending itself to a wide-variety of applications. Three research areas are investigated in this dissertation in an effort to improve the predictive capabilities of ADCIRC through improved numerics.Third, baroclinic models that are used to simulate density-driven flows require an accurate and stable computation of the baroclinic pressure gradient (BPG). In this study, four methods for computing the BPG are investigated, along with resolution requirements (horizontal and vertical). Numerical experiments thus far indicate that the z-coordinate method provides the least amount of error, and a hybrid method, which switches from sigma to z-coordinates at a prescribed depth, also shows promising results

Outbreaks: Protecting Americans From Infectious Diseases 2015

Infectious diseases -- most of which are preventable -- disrupt the lives of millions of Americans each year. But the country does not sufficiently invest in basic protections that could help avoid significant numbers of outbreaks and save billions of dollars in unnecessary healthcare costs. U.S. investments in infectious disease prevention ebb and flow, where there is a major ramp up when a new eminent threat emerges, but then falls back when the problem seems contained.In the most recent example last year, the Ebola outbreak resulted in ephemeral attention and emergency supplemental funding to backfill gaps in the nation's ability to respond. But, lags in even emergency funding processes meant much of the support came too late to address immediate needs in states and in Africa. And the funding was not at a sufficient level to shore up ongoing gaps, leaving the United States still vulnerable for when the next emerging threat arises.Fighting infectious disease requires constant vigilance. Policies and resources must be in place to allow scientists and public health and medical experts to have the tools they need to: control ongoing outbreaks -- such as HIV/AIDS, antibiotic-resistant superbugs and foodborne illnesses; detect new or reemerging outbreaks -- such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV), measles and avian flu; and monitor for potential bioterrorist threats -- such as anthrax or smallpox

Outbreaks: Protecting Americans From Infectious Diseases 2014

This report examines a range of infectious disease concerns. The report highlights a series of 10 indicators in each state that, taken collectively, offer a composite snapshot of strengths and vulnerabilities across the health system. These indicators help illustrate the types of policy fundamentals that are important to have in place not just to prevent the spread of disease in the first place but also to detect, diagnose and respond to outbreaks. In addition, the report examines key areas of concern in the nation's ability to prevent and control infectious diseases and offers recommendations for addressing these gaps. The Outbreaks report provides the public, policymakers and a broad and diverse set of groups involved in public health and the healthcare system with an objective, nonpartisan, independent analysis of the status of infectious disease policies; encourages greater transparency and accountability of the system; and recommends ways to assure the public health and healthcare systems meet today's needs and work across borders to accomplish their goals

Healthcare access and mammography screening in Michigan: a multilevel cross-sectional study

Abstract Background Breast cancer screening rates have increased over time in the United States. However actual screening rates appear to be lower among black women compared with white women. Purpose To assess determinants of breast cancer screening among women in Michigan USA, focusing on individual and neighborhood socio-economic status and healthcare access. Methods Data from 1163 women ages 50-74 years who participated in the 2008 Michigan Special Cancer Behavioral Risk Factor Survey were analyzed. County-level SES and healthcare access were obtained from the Area Resource File. Multilevel logistic regression models were fit using SAS Proc Glimmix to account for clustering of individual observations by county. Separate models were fit for each of the two outcomes of interest; mammography screening and clinical breast examination. For each outcome, two sequential models were fit; a model including individual level covariates and a model including county level covariates. Results After adjusting for misclassification bias, overall cancer screening rates were lower than reported by survey respondents; black women had lower mammography screening rates but higher clinical breast examination rates than white women. However, after adjusting for other individual level variables, race was not a significant predictor of screening. Having health insurance or a usual healthcare provider were the most important predictors of cancer screening. Discussion Access to healthcare is important to ensuring appropriate cancer screening among women in Michigan

Healthcare access and mammography screening in Michigan: a multilevel cross-sectional study

Abstract Background Breast cancer screening rates have increased over time in the United States. However actual screening rates appear to be lower among black women compared with white women. Purpose To assess determinants of breast cancer screening among women in Michigan USA, focusing on individual and neighborhood socio-economic status and healthcare access. Methods Data from 1163 women ages 50-74 years who participated in the 2008 Michigan Special Cancer Behavioral Risk Factor Survey were analyzed. County-level SES and healthcare access were obtained from the Area Resource File. Multilevel logistic regression models were fit using SAS Proc Glimmix to account for clustering of individual observations by county. Separate models were fit for each of the two outcomes of interest; mammography screening and clinical breast examination. For each outcome, two sequential models were fit; a model including individual level covariates and a model including county level covariates. Results After adjusting for misclassification bias, overall cancer screening rates were lower than reported by survey respondents; black women had lower mammography screening rates but higher clinical breast examination rates than white women. However, after adjusting for other individual level variables, race was not a significant predictor of screening. Having health insurance or a usual healthcare provider were the most important predictors of cancer screening. Discussion Access to healthcare is important to ensuring appropriate cancer screening among women in Michigan.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/112422/1/12939_2011_Article_270.pd

Brief Report of Preliminary Outcomes of an Emotion Regulation Intervention for Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

DOI: 10.1007/s10803-015-2446-1Children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) often present with comorbid psychopathology including problems with emotion regulation. The goal of the present research was to investigate the feasibility of a multicomponent manualized cognitive behavior therapy treatment program for improving emotion regulation in youth with ASD 8 to 12 years of age. Thirteen males and their parents participated in the intervention, reporting high satisfaction with the activities and program overall, and attending all sessions. Preliminary outcomes regarding emotion regulation and psychopathology, and feasibility of the intervention, are summarized and discussed.Chair in Autism Spectrum Disorders Treatment and Care Research (#RN284208; Canadian Institutes of Health Research in partnership with NeuroDevNet, Sinneave Family Foundation, CASDA, Autism Speaks Canada and Health Canada) and seed funding from the Spectrum of Hope Autism Foundatio

Therapeutic treatment with an oral prodrug of the remdesivir parental nucleoside is protective against SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis in mice

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic remains uncontrolled despite the rapid rollout of safe and effective severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccines, underscoring the need to develop highly effective antivirals. In the setting of waning immunity from infection and vaccination, breakthrough infections are becoming increasingly common and treatment options remain limited. Additionally, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, with their potential to escape neutralization by therapeutic monoclonal antibodies, emphasizes the need to develop second-generation oral antivirals targeting highly conserved viral proteins that can be rapidly deployed to outpatients. Here, we demonstrate the in vitro antiviral activity and in vivo therapeutic efficacy of GS-621763, an orally bioavailable prodrug of GS-441524, the parent nucleoside of remdesivir, which targets the highly conserved virus RNA-dependent RNA polymerase. GS-621763 exhibited antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2 in lung cell lines and two different human primary lung cell culture systems. GS-621763 was also potently antiviral against a genetically unrelated emerging coronavirus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome CoV (MERS-CoV). The dose-proportional pharmacokinetic profile observed after oral administration of GS-621763 translated to dose-dependent antiviral activity in mice infected with SARS-CoV-2. Therapeutic GS-621763 administration reduced viral load and lung pathology; treatment also improved pulmonary function in COVID-19 mouse model. A direct comparison of GS-621763 with molnupiravir, an oral nucleoside analog antiviral which has recently received EUA approval, proved both drugs to be similarly efficacious in mice. These data support the exploration of GS-441524 oral prodrugs for the treatment of COVID-19

Racial differences in breast cancer survival in the Detroit Metropolitan area

African American (AA) women have poorer breast cancer survival compared to Caucasian American (CA) women. The purpose of this analysis was to determine whether socioeconomic status (SES) and treatment differences influence racial differences in breast cancer survival . The study population included 9,321 women (82% CA, 18% AA) diagnosed with local (63%) or regional (37%) stage disease between 1988 and 1992, identified through the Metropolitan Detroit SEER registry. Data on SES were obtained through linkage with the 1990 Census of Population and Housing Summary Tape and cases were geocoded to census block groups. Pathology, treatment and survival data were obtained through SEER. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare survival for AA versus CA women after adjusting for age, SES, tumor size, number of involved lymph nodes, and treatment. AA␣women were more likely to live in a geographic area classified as working poor than were CA women ( p <0.001). AA women were less likely to have lumpectomy and radiation and more likely to have mastectomy with radiation ( p <0.001). After multivariable adjusted analysis, there were no significant racial differences in survival among women with local stage disease, although AA women with regional stage disease had persistent but attenuated poorer survival compared to CA women. After adjusting for known clinical and SES predictors of survival, AA and CA women who are diagnosed with local disease demonstrate similar overall and breast cancer-specific survival, while race continues to have an independent effect among women presenting at a later stage of disease.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/44238/1/10549_2005_Article_9103.pd